The Biggest Earnings Predictions This Week

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Peak Earnings Season: Key Stocks to Watch

We are now entering peak earnings season. The results can not only move individual stocks dramatically but also have the potential to shift the entire market. Companies reporting include Google, Visa, Microsoft, Meta, Starbucks, Apple, Amazon, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, MasterCard, and more.

The Impact of Earnings Reports

Last week served as a reminder of how earnings reports can significantly affect stock prices.

  • Genuine Parts Company (GPC) fell over 20% after missing their earnings per share target by more than 22% and lowering their full-year outlook.

  • On the flip side, Tesla (TSLA) reported strong earnings, beating estimates by over 24%, which propelled the stock up by more than 25%.

These examples underscore why it's crucial to pay attention to earnings reports and the guidance companies provide during their earnings calls. With that in mind, let's dive into the key companies reporting this week and my thoughts on each.

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The Key Story

The Most Important Stocks Reporting

McDonald's (MCD Stock)

Reporting Before Market Open on Tuesday, November 29th

  • McDonald's is down about 7% in the past week due to an E. coli outbreak linked to their Quarter Pounder, affecting at least 75 people. This makes the upcoming earnings call particularly significant. Investors will be keen to hear how the company is addressing the issue and its potential impact on future earnings.

  • Financially, McDonald's is expected to report earnings per share of $3.19 and revenue of $6.79 billion for the quarter. If they miss these estimates or fail to reassure investors about the outbreak, the stock could see a substantial decline.

Alphabet (GOOGL Stock)

Reporting After Market Close on Tuesday

  • Alphabet (Google) is expected to report revenue of $86.32 billion and earnings per share of $1.84. Given their performance in the previous two quarters, I believe they might beat these estimates. I'm heavily considering investing in Alphabet, especially since they've initiated a dividend. They are one of the most dominant tech companies, boasting strong revenue and free cash flow growth, a robust balance sheet, and significant cash reserves. Their recent entry into dividend payments could make them a future dividend growth stock.

Visa (V Stock)

Reporting After Market Close on Tuesday

  • Visa is the number one stock in my dividend growth portfolio. Analysts expect them to report $9.48 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $2.58. Visa has a fantastic business model with high margins and low capital expenditures, generating massive free cash flow. They consistently return capital to shareholders through share repurchases and a growing dividend. Their dividend has a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 18%, and it's highly sustainable with a payout ratio of just 19% based on free cash flow.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP Stock)

Reporting Before Market Open on Wednesday

  • ADP is another popular dividend growth stock and a smaller holding in my portfolio. They're expected to report $4.77 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $2.21. ADP has beaten earnings estimates for the past ten quarters. They've successfully transitioned to a cloud-based software model, providing reliable and growing subscription revenue, which fuels their dividend growth.

Microsoft (MSFT Stock)

Reporting After Market Close on Wednesday

  • Microsoft is the second-largest holding in my dividend growth portfolio. Analysts expect them to report $64.4 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $3.10. I'm looking for re-acceleration in their earnings per share growth. While revenue has been growing, increased expenses have kept EPS relatively flat over the past year. Microsoft continues to be a growth machine, with cloud computing as a significant driver.

Meta Platforms (META Stock)

Reporting After Market Close on Wednesday

  • Meta is expected to report $41.3 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $5.21. I regret not buying Meta during the fall 2022 crash when it was a no-brainer buy. Since then, their earnings have rebounded to all-time highs, and they've initiated a dividend payment. I'm considering adding Meta to my portfolio as a potential dividend growth stock.

Starbucks (SBUX Stock)

Reporting After Market Close on Wednesday

  • Starbucks is a high-quality brand currently undergoing a turnaround. They had a poor Q2 earnings report, leading to a change in leadership. The new CEO, poached from Chipotle, has started outlining his plans, and this will be his first earnings call at Starbucks. They've recently announced a 7% dividend increase, aligning with their commitment to dividend growth. I'm interested to see if they can return to double-digit earnings per share growth, which analysts previously projected.

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MasterCard (MA Stock)

Reporting Before Market Open on Thursday

  • Similar to Visa, MasterCard is a fantastic dividend growth company. They operate in a near-duopoly in the credit and debit card market. Analysts expect them to report $7.26 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $3.73. Both Visa and MasterCard have dominant market positions and benefit from the ongoing shift towards digital payments.

Altria Group (MO Stock)

Reporting Before Market Open on Thursday

  • Altria is one of the largest positions in my dividend growth portfolio and my highest-yielding stock. They're expected to report $5.35 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $1.35, representing about 3% year-over-year growth. I'm not expecting high growth from Altria; instead, I value its reliable, high-yield dividend, which currently stands at over 8%. I'll be paying attention to their progress with smoke-free products like the NJOY vape and On! nicotine pouches, as well as the decline in cigarette volumes.

Apple (AAPL Stock)

Reporting After Market Close on Thursday

  • Apple is expected to report $94.4 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $1.60. I haven't added to my Apple position since 2021 due to slowed growth. Earnings per share have been relatively flat, with share buybacks being the primary driver of EPS increases. I'm interested in hearing about the new iPhone launch and whether Apple has any upcoming innovations, particularly in AI, that could reignite growth.

Amazon (AMZN)

Reporting After Market Close on Thursday

  • Amazon is projected to report $171.4 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $1.14, representing 21% year-over-year EPS growth. While not a dividend growth company, Amazon remains one of the world's most dominant tech companies. They've refocused on improving earnings per share, which has helped the stock recover from its 2022 lows. I believe Amazon will continue to be a powerhouse in the long term.

Intel (INTC Stock)

Reporting After Market Close on Thursday

  • Intel has been one of my biggest investing mistakes, and I've avoided the stock in recent years. Their earnings per share have collapsed since 2022, and they're expected to report $13 billion in revenue and a loss of $0.02 per share this quarter. High capital expenditures and missing the AI wave have hurt them significantly. While a turnaround might happen eventually, I don't see signs of it this quarter.

Exxon Mobil (XOM Stock) and Chevron (CVX Stock)

Reporting Before Market Open on Friday

  • I own both Exxon Mobil and Chevron in my dividend portfolio. Exxon is expected to report $95.6 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $1.96, down from $2.14 in the previous quarter due to lower oil prices. Despite the cyclical nature of the oil industry, both companies manage their dividends with a long-term mindset, making them reliable holdings for dividend investors.

T. Rowe Price (TROW Stock)

Reporting Before Market Open on Friday

  • T. Rowe Price is a company I own but am considering selling. They're expected to report $1.83 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $2.28, just under 10% year-over-year growth. While they have a simple, high-margin business model and strong free cash flow, they're facing challenges as investors shift from mutual funds to ETFs with lower fees. I'm planning to listen to their earnings call to assess whether to hold or sell my position.

Final Thoughts

These are the stocks I'll be closely watching during this earnings week. Earnings reports can significantly impact stock prices, and staying informed helps make better investment decisions. Let me know your thoughts or if there are other companies you're watching this week.

Also, a quick shoutout to Earnings Hub, the official earnings partner of Dividend Data. They offer great tools to help you stay ahead during earnings season. Feel free to use my link to sign up and explore their features.

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— Zach

Disclaimer: Dividend Dividend (Dividend Data LLC) is not a professional financial service. All materials released from Dividend Data (Dividend Data LLC) are for educational and entertainment purposes. Dividend Data (Dividend Data LLC) is not a replacement for a professional's opinion. Contributors to the Dividend Data (Dividend Data LLC) might have equities mentioned in the newsletter