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Software Stocks Just Crashed. Here’s What I’m Buying.

February 09, 2026

Happy Monday,

It’s Zach here with another weekly investing update!

We just had a crazy week in the stock market. There is a significant sell-off among software stocks. PayPal sold off 20% in one day, Salesforce is down 26% this month, and even big tech giants like Microsoft are down nearly 16% this month.

Why is this happening?

Investors are fearful of AI. There are concerns about job losses reducing "seat-based" software revenue and AI models writing code that could create competitors overnight.

But as Warren Buffett says, "Be greedy when others are fearful."

The market is indiscriminately selling off high-quality businesses that will likely adapt and win in the AI era.

Topics Covered:

The Key Story

Here are 5 software stocks I’m looking at during this crash.

Watch my video here: https://youtu.be/qgmU8nhiHgg

1. Microsoft (MSFT)

I bought a ton of Microsoft last week when it sold off nearly 15%.

The Opportunity: It is trading at a forward P/E of roughly 23-25x, which is a historical low for the company.

The Growth: Despite the noise, their cloud business (Azure) grew 38% year-over-year.

AI Outlook: Microsoft is heavily investing in data centers (CapEx is up), but this is to secure their future dominance. I believe they are a massive winner in AI, not a victim.

2. Salesforce (CRM)

Salesforce is down 46% from its all-time highs, yet the business is doing better than ever.

Valuation: It’s trading at a forward P/E of roughly 14.7x. That is dirt cheap for this company.

Cash Flow: They generated $12.9 billion in free cash flow over the trailing 12 months.

The Moat: They are integrating AI agents (Agentforce) directly into their massive ecosystem of products and data.

3. Intuit (INTU)

Intuit (TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma) is down 44% over the past six months.

Valuation: Trading at an 18x forward P/E—the cheapest it has been since 2016.

Dividend: They just raised the dividend by 15%. The yield is now over 1.1% with a very safe payout ratio.

Stickiness: Their ecosystem holds deep user data, making it hard for customers to switch, even with new AI competitors.

4. Adobe (ADBE)

Adobe is the "pure software" play that prints money. The stock is down 60% from its 2021 highs.

Insane Value: It is trading at an 11.6x forward P/E. A few years ago, this traded at 30-40x.

Financials: Revenue and free cash flow just hit all-time highs.

The Risk/Reward: While AI image generation is a competitor, Adobe’s creative suite is deeply embedded in professional workflows. At this price, the market is pricing it for death, which I think is wrong.

5. The Dividend Aristocrats (Bonus)

If you want lower risk, two Dividend Aristocrats in the software space are also on sale:

Roper Technologies (ROP): Hitting all-time high EPS with a 12% dividend CAGR.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP): The payroll giant. While there are risks regarding AI creating more payroll software competition, ADP is a Dividend King with 50+ years of increases. They’ve adapted to multiple technological waves.

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Stock Analysis

The Market Is Wrong About Google.

Watch my video here: https://youtu.be/5L6H3JRjhms

Alphabet is the second most valuable company in the world, and for good reason. They just beat earnings expectations with $2.82 EPS (over 31% growth year-over-year).

Here is what you need to know about the quarter:

  • Search is stronger than ever: Despite fears that AI would kill search, revenue grew 17% YoY to $63 billion. AI overviews and better ad targeting are actually improving monetization.

  • The Cloud Juggernaut: Google Cloud revenue hit an all-time high of $17.6 billion (up 48%). More impressively, operating income more than doubled to $5.3 billion. This is officially the company's second pillar of growth.

The $185 Billion Risk

Here is the number that scared the market: Google announced that in 2026, they anticipate CapEx investments in the range of $175 to $185 billion.

To put that in perspective, they spent roughly $91 billion in 2025. They are essentially doubling their infrastructure spend to build out data centers and buy chips.

This creates a unique risk profile:

  • Negative Free Cash Flow? The guidance suggests they might spend more in 2026 than they generated in operating cash flow in 2025 ($164.7B). We could technically see a "zero free cash flow" Google next year.

  • The AI Bet: Google is betting the farm on AI infrastructure. They believe AI usage will explode (Jevans paradox), and they refuse to lose their market position to Microsoft or Amazon.

My Verdict: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Is Google a "screaming buy" like it was in April 2025 when it traded at a 16 P/E?

No. It is currently trading near all-time highs.

However, I view it as Fair Value.

With a fortress balance sheet ($126B in cash), Google is one of the few companies that can afford this spend. I believe this investment will cement them as an AI leader for the next decade. I am holding my shares and expecting reliable returns over the long term.

Earnings This Week

Coca Cola, McDonalds, Cisco, Shopify, Spotify, etc

Top Dividend Stocks: Coca-Cola (KO), McDonald's (MCD), Cisco (CSCO), Enbridge (ENB), CVS Health (CVS), BP, Duke Energy (DUK), Ford (F), etc.

Top Growth Stocks: Shopify (SHOP), Spotify (SPOT), Airbnb (ABNB), Coinbase (COIN), Datadog (DDOG), Rivian (RIVN), etc.

Here’s the full list to watch:

Monday (02/09):

  • ON - ON Semiconductor Corp

  • MNDY - monday.com Ltd.

Tuesday (02/10):

  • KO - The Coca-Cola Company

  • CVS - CVS Health Corporation

  • BP - BP p.l.c.

  • DUK - Duke Energy Corporation

  • F - Ford Motor Company

  • GILD - Gilead Sciences, Inc.

  • SPGI - S&P Global Inc.

  • MAR - Marriott International, Inc.

  • SPOT - Spotify Technology S.A.

  • DDOG - Datadog, Inc.

  • HOOD - Robinhood Markets, Inc.

  • NET - Cloudflare, Inc.

  • LYFT - Lyft, Inc.

  • RACE - Ferrari N.V.

Wednesday (02/11):

  • MCD - McDonald's Corporation

  • CSCO - Cisco Systems, Inc.

  • KHC - The Kraft Heinz Company

  • TTE - TotalEnergies SE

  • EQIX - Equinix, Inc. (REIT)

  • SHOP - Shopify Inc.

  • TMUS - T-Mobile US, Inc.

  • HUM - Humana Inc.

  • ALB - Albemarle Corporation

  • APP - AppLovin Corporation

Thursday (02/12):

  • BN - Brookfield Corporation

  • AMAT - Applied Materials, Inc.

  • ZTS - Zoetis Inc.

  • COIN - Coinbase Global, Inc.

  • ABNB - Airbnb, Inc.

  • ANET - Arista Networks, Inc.

  • RIVN - Rivian Automotive, Inc.

  • DKNG - DraftKings Inc.

  • PINS - Pinterest, Inc.

  • ROKU - Roku, Inc.

  • TWLO - Twilio Inc.

Friday (02/13):

  • ENB - Enbridge Inc.

  • MRNA - Moderna, Inc.

  • CCJ - Cameco Corporation

Dividend News

🚀 Dividend Raises This Month

  • GE - GE Aerospace raises quarterly dividend by 30.6% to $0.47/share

  • HSY - Hershey raises dividend by 6% to $1.45

  • YUM - Yum! Brands raises quarterly dividend by 5.6% to $0.75/share

  • ALL - Allstate raises dividend by 8% to $1.08

  • CI - Cigna raises dividend by 3.3% to $1.56

  • AEE - Ameren raises quarterly dividend by 5.6% to $0.75/share

  • ICE - Intercontinental Exchange raises dividend by 8%

  • CHD - Church & Dwight raises dividend by 4.2% to $0.3075

  • AVB - AvalonBay Communities raises quarterly dividend by 1.7% to $1.78/share

  • CMS - CMS Energy raises dividend by 5%

  • VTR - Ventas raises dividend by 8.3% to $0.52

  • REXR - Rexford Industrial Realty raises dividend by 1.2%

  • FR - First Industrial Realty Trust raises dividend by ~12%

  • ITT - ITT raises dividend by 10% to $0.386

  • MPWR - Monolithic Power Systems raises dividend by 28.2% to $2.00

  • ARES - Ares Management raises dividend by 20% to $1.35

  • TPG - TPG raises dividend by 35.6% to $0.61

  • TW - Tradeweb Markets raises dividend by ~17%

  • REGN - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals raises dividend by 6.8% to $0.94

  • ALLE - Allegion raises quarterly dividend by 8% to $0.55/share

  • WWD - Woodward raises dividend by 14%

  • VRSN - VeriSign raises dividend by 5.2% to $0.81

  • AB - AllianceBernstein raises dividend by ~11%

What I Bought This Week

  • Bought 6 more share of $MSFT at an average cost of $398.27

  • Bought 2 more shares of $MSFT at an average cost of $411.09

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That’s it for this week’s update. If you want to follow along in real time, analyze these tickers, or track your own portfolio, jump into DividendData.com. You’ll also find our Discord community and my AI research tool there. Hit reply and tell me what you’re buying—I may feature a few notes next week.

📅 Keep Investing. Stay informed.

– Zach
Founder, Dividend Data

P.S. Questions or suggestions? Reply to this email—I'd love your feedback!

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